Written by Gowtham Raj, Director at TartLabs, who works with technology leaders on dedicated developer teams and custom software engagements.
The Short Answer
Senior engineers are among the hardest hires in software right now, since senior roles make up most of what employers post and tech hiring managers report hiring is harder, but "demand tripled" is a round-up even for AI, machine learning and data science roles, where postings rose about 2.6 times. Across all software development, postings are up about 15% since February 2025 and still sit about 26% below their February 2020 level (Indeed's index was 74.4 in August 2026). What changed is the mix. Senior roles drove most of the recovery, while entry-level postings kept falling.
For a hiring leader the practical reading is the same either way: the experienced engineers you want are being chased by more employers than a year ago, and they are not being produced any faster. The sections below show the numbers and the five moves we see working.
Key Takeaways
- Senior roles accounted for 71% of the increase in Indeed's software development postings between May 2025 and May 2026, per Indeed Hiring Lab.
- AI, ML and data science postings rose 163% in 2025 to 49,200, according to Robert Half. That is about 2.6 times the 2024 level, which may be where the "tripled" framing comes from.
- 65% of technology hiring managers say finding skilled talent is harder than a year ago, also per Robert Half (a survey of tech hiring generally, not senior roles alone).
- Long-run employment growth is modest, not a flood of new talent. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 10% employment growth for software developers from 2025 to 2035.
- Five moves help: write a narrower role, widen the location, pay for the scarce skill, grow seniors from within, and add a dedicated-team partner for the gap.
Is Demand Really Tripled?
Not across the board, and the difference matters when you plan a budget.
Robert Half's technology hiring page reports 49,200 AI, machine learning and data science postings in 2025, up 163% from 2024. Security postings reached 66,800, up 124%. A 163% rise means postings multiplied by 2.63, so "nearly tripled" is fair for that segment, and "tripled" is a round-up. These are one firm's posting counts, not hires.
The wider picture from Indeed Hiring Lab is calmer. Software development postings are up almost 15% since February 2025, while total U.S. postings fell 7% over the same period. Indeed's August 2026 snapshot puts the software development index at 74.4, up from a low of 61.1 in May 2025, against a baseline of 100 in February 2020.
| Source | Measures | Figure | What it does not show |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Half | AI, ML and data science postings, 2025 | 49,200, up 163% | Hires, or other roles |
| Indeed Hiring Lab | All software development postings | Up almost 15% since Feb 2025 | Seniority mix on its own |
| Indeed Hiring Lab | Senior share of the increase, May 2025 to May 2026 | 71% | Number of senior engineers available |
| BLS | Software developer employment, 2025 to 2035 | 10% growth, 174,700 jobs | Postings, or senior supply |
Put the two together and a clearer story appears. Overall hiring for software is rebuilding from a deep hole, and the AI-related end of it is growing several times faster than the rest. Indeed also found that postings with AI in the title accounted for 37% of the increase, and notes that this group and the senior-role group overlap.
Why Senior Engineers Feel the Squeeze
Senior roles dominate what is being posted. Indeed's seniority analysis found that senior-level positions made up 69.3% of software development postings in the first quarter of 2026, and entry-level roles only 4.5%. Senior postings were up 14.7% year over year as of May 2026, while entry-level postings were down 7.5%.
That shape produces a supply problem that no single year of hiring can fix. A senior engineer is, by definition, someone with several years of production experience. Indeed describes senior work as requiring advanced specialized knowledge, typically five or more years of experience. If the industry hires fewer juniors today, it has fewer seniors in five years. Employers are all fishing in the same pool and the pool is not being refilled quickly.
The official long-run outlook measures jobs, not available people, and does not suggest a flood of new talent. The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook projects 10% growth in software developer employment from 2025 to 2035, about 174,700 additional jobs, and a median wage of $135,980 as of May 2025. BLS refreshes these projections on a rolling cycle, so check which edition any article cites before comparing figures.
Robert Half's survey shows the effect on the people doing the hiring: 65% of technology hiring managers say finding skilled professionals is more challenging than a year ago.
None of these sources measures the supply of senior engineers directly. We infer the squeeze from the shrinking entry-level pipeline and from hiring-manager surveys. In our experience across dedicated-team engagements, the squeeze is sharpest where three things combine: a senior title, a specialty such as AI, security or platform engineering, and a fixed location. Remove any one and the search gets easier.
Five Moves That Work in a Senior Shortage
These are our views from working with clients on engineering teams, not findings from the sources above.
1. Write a narrower role, not a bigger one
A posting that asks for a senior full-stack engineer who also knows machine learning, DevOps and three cloud platforms describes a person who barely exists. Split it. Hire the specialist you need most, and cover the rest through a second hire or a partner.
2. Widen the location
A role limited to one metro competes with every other employer in that metro. Hiring remotely, or in a region with a deep engineering pool, changes the odds immediately. This is the main reason many U.S. and European companies now build dedicated developer teams in India alongside their core staff.
3. Pay for the skill that is actually scarce
Indeed's August 2026 data shows AI-related keywords now appear in 6.3% of all postings, up from a prior peak of 3.3% in 2022. Skills many employers want tend to cost more; that is our view, not a finding from Indeed's data. If your budget is flat, pay the premium for one scarce skill and keep the rest of the band normal, instead of nudging every senior salary up a little.
4. Grow seniors from the people you already have
Because entry-level hiring has dropped, a strong mid-level engineer is worth keeping. A clear path to senior, with real ownership of a system rather than just a title change, is cheaper than replacing them in a market where the replacement takes months.
5. Add a dedicated team for the gap
When a senior hire is going to take months, a dedicated team covers delivery in the meantime and can stay on if the hire arrives. The trade-offs are covered in our guide to dedicated developers versus an in-house team. We would pick this route when a roadmap date is fixed and the search has already run past the point where waiting is cheap.
A Quick Self-Check Before You Post the Role
- Does the role name one core skill, not six?
- Could the work be done by someone outside your city?
- Have you priced the single scarce skill separately from the base salary band?
- Is there a mid-level engineer on your team who could step up with the right scope?
- If this hire takes four months, what ships in the meantime?
As a rule of thumb, if you answer "no" or "I don't know" to two or more, the search is probably harder than it needs to be.
The Bottom Line
The headline is a little louder than the data, but the direction is right. Senior engineers drove most of the 2025 to 2026 recovery in software postings, AI-related roles grew far faster than the rest, and the pipeline of future seniors is thinner than it was. Plan for a longer search, narrow the role, widen the location, and decide early what covers delivery while you wait.
If you would like a second opinion on a specific role or a dedicated team for the gap, talk to us about a senior hire.
